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Israeli intel: Damascus used chemical weapons against rebels

In Uncategorized on April 23, 2013 at 5:47 pm

“Israel’s top military intelligence analyst said Syrian government forces have used chemical weapons against rebels, and warned his own country may soon become a target,” Bloomberg News reports. “U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry questioned whether there’s hard evidence of chemical arms use, telling reporters that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been unable to confirm the reports in a phone call today.”

“The remarks by Brigadier-General Itai Brun, chief of research and analysis for the army’s military intelligence division, could edge the U.S. closer to entering the conflict,” notes Bloomberg News. “President Barack Obama has warned that the use of chemical weapons would be a ‘game changer’ in deciding whether the U.S. should intervene in Syria’s civil war. The U.K. and France have also alleged that President Bashar al-Assad’s troops have used chemical weapons against rebel fighters.”

“To the best of our professional understanding, the regime has used lethal chemical weapons on a number of occasions, including the incident on March 19,” the head of the Research Division at Military Intelligence, Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, said at conference of the Institute for National Security Studies, reports Haaretz. “In his remarks to the INSS, Brun addressed the characteristics that led IDF Military Intelligence to this conclusion, photographs taken of the affected areas after the attacks, including depictions of foam coming out of the mouths of Syrians in the area of the attacks. Brun added that the Israeli intelligence community believed that the chemical weapon used was sarin-based.”

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How it went down: The most interesting coverage of the hunt for the Boston terror bombers

In Uncategorized on April 21, 2013 at 2:59 am
Using infrared technology, suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was seen hiding in a boat from above. (Getty Images)

Using infrared technology, suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was seen hiding in a boat from above. (Getty Images)

My wife and three of our four sons and I just got back from a week of vacation out of the country — no email, no Twitter, no Facebook, no blogging, nothing but time playing in the sun as a family. News eventually reached us at sea about the terror attacks in Boston (see video) that killed three and injured 176 others, but we are just learning about the extraordinary week we missed.

Our prayers are with all those affected, including their friends and families and all those law enforcement heroes who have been and are continuing to work on the case. [UPDATE: Shots fired at Denver marijuana holiday rally]

Here is some of the most interesting coverage I’ve seen of the terror drama since getting back a few hours ago:

Excerpts from a remarkable by Bloomberg News:

Minutes before the bombs blew up in Boston, Jeff Bauman looked into the eyes of the man who tried to kill him.

Just before 3 p.m. on April 15, Bauman was waiting among the crowd for his girlfriend to cross the finish line at the Boston Marathon. A man wearing a cap, sunglasses and a black jacket over a hooded sweatshirt looked at Jeff, 27, and dropped a bag at his feet, his brother, Chris Bauman, said in an interview.

Two and a half minutes later, the bag exploded, tearing Jeff’s legs apart. A picture of him in a wheelchair, bloodied and ashen, was broadcast around the world as he was rushed to Boston Medical Center. He lost both legs below the knee.

“He woke up under so much drugs, asked for a paper and pen and wrote, ‘bag, saw the guy, looked right at me,’” Chris Bauman said yesterday in an interview.

Those words may have helped crack the mystery of who perpetrated one of the highest-profile acts of terror in the U.S. since the 2001 assault on New York City and the Washington area, one that killed three people and wounded scores.

The Boston area was on lockdown this morning after law enforcement officials killed one suspect in the bombing and were hunting another, following a night of violent clashes between the two men and authorities that killed a Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus police officer.

Is war with Iran unavoidable? Video of my Fox News interview on what lessons Israeli leaders are drawing from North Korean nuclear crisis.

In Uncategorized on April 12, 2013 at 2:51 pm

joel-NKcrisis-FoxDoes the crisis in Korea make an Israeli war with Iran unavoidable?

On Thursday, I was interviewed on the Fox News Channel about the situation on the Korean Peninsula and its linkage to Iran. We discussed the challenges President Obama is having in facing his first nuclear crisis. We also discussed how Israeli leaders are perceiving the situation and why this crisis in the Pacific could potentially accelerate Israel’s decision to launch strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In the Mideast context, the central question is how Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his War Cabinet assess the implications and ramifications of the North Korea nuclear program and the Obama administration’s unwillingness to take decisive action to stop Pyongyang from building nuclear weapons. The more alone Israel feels, the more likely it will be to strike Iran hard and fast.

Here’s the link to the video — it runs just under 4 minutes.

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U.S. intel says Assad’s days are numbered. ‘We just don’t know the number.’ But Syria rebels pledge loyalty to al Qaeda.

In Uncategorized on April 12, 2013 at 1:49 pm
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The countdown is underway to the fall of the Damascus and the Assad regime. The problem is that most of the rebels are radical Islamic jihadists who could proven even worse than the murderous Assad.

“The question comes up, ‘How long will Assad last?’” said James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, during Congressional testimony on Thursday. “Our standard answer is, ‘His days are numbered. We just don’t know the number.”

“Our assessment is that he is very committed to hanging in there and sustaining his control of the regime,” Clapper noted, even as he warned the Assad regime does possess chemical and biological weapons and could choose to use them. “The opposition is gaining in strength; it is gaining territory,” Clapper said, reported the World Tribune. “At the same time, the regime is experiencing shortages in manpower and logistics.”

“In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on March 12, Clapper, who heads the intelligence community, said the Assad regime was coming under increasing pressure amid rebel gains.” the Tribune reported. “He said the Syrian military was unable to stop rebel advancements by conventional systems and could resort chemical weapons. ‘We assess that Syria has a stockpile of munitions — including missiles, aerial bombs, and possibly artillery rockets — that can be used to deliver CW agents,’ Clapper said.”

Now comes news that the rebels fighting against Assad have pledged their loyalty to al Qaeda.

“The head of Syria’s jihadist Al-Nusra Front has pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, but distanced his group from claims it has merged with Al-Qaeda in Iraq,” reports Agence France Presse. ”Al-Nusra’s announcement on Wednesday is likely to bolster assertions by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime that it is fighting ‘terrorists’ who want to impose an Islamic state. ‘The sons of Al-Nusra Front pledge allegiance to Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri,’ Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani said in a recording….Al-Nusra is among the most prominent organisations involved in Syria’s conflict, which erupted in March 2011 with peaceful protests against Assad’s regime but has evolved into a war that has killed tens of thousands. It has gained notoriety for suicide bombings but also won admiration from some insurgents for its reputation as a formidable fighting force leading attacks on battle fronts across Syria.”

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Linkage: DIA “bombshell” assessment that North Korea may now have nuclear missiles could accelerate Israeli calculus for hitting Iran.

In Uncategorized on April 12, 2013 at 1:15 pm
Distances that North Korean missiles would have to travel to strike U.S. targets (NYT graphic)

Distances that North Korean missiles would have to travel to strike U.S. targets (Washington Post graphic/Congressional Research Service)

>> North Korea states ‘nuclear war is unavoidable’ as it declares first target will be Japan (UK Express)

The news that the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency now believes North Korea may be able to miniaturize its nuclear warheads and fit them on ballistic missiles means the crisis on the Korean Peninsula involves not just one but two dangerous scenarios.

First, that Kim Jung Un — the Pyongyang man-child dictator – will trigger a nuclear war in East Asia, either purposefully or accidentally. The last Korean war cost more than 2.5 million lives. The next one could cost many multiples of that. Seoul alone is a city of some 12 million people.

Second, that Benjamin Netanyahu — the Israeli Prime Minister — will feel compelled to launch a massive preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities sooner rather than later. Why? Because the rapid advancement of North Korea in building nuclear warheads capable of fitting on ballistic missiles means Iran is not far behind from accomplishing the same if North Korea is selling their research to the mullahs in Tehran. This could accelerate the Israeli calculus for taking decisive action since neither the Obama administration nor other world powers appear to be taking decisive steps of their own to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat.

This is what I call “linkage.”

While on the surface North Korea is creating a crisis that is unique to the Pacific theater, the sober truth is that the crisis actually has direct and immediate implications for the Middle East. Israeli leaders are monitoring the North Korean developments very closely. They are also watching equally closely how the White House is handling the Korean situation.

At this point, Netanyahu and his advisors are likely drawing the following conclusions:

  1. Pyongyang either has or nearly has not just an operational nuclear warhead, but one that can be fitted on a ballistic missile;
  2. Therefore, because Iran and North Korea are working so closely together, it must be assumed that Iran is even closer to having deliverable nuclear missiles than previously believed;
  3. The U.S. intends to take no decisive action to stop Pyongyang from becoming a nuclear weapons power;
  4. Therefore, it can be assumed that the U.S. is not going to take decisive action to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons power;
  5. In the cases of both North Korea and Iran, the Obama administration talks tough, but carries a little stick — the U.S. merely intends to contain and deter these two countries from using nuclear weapons, not really prevent them from building them;
  6. Thus, Israel is on its own, and may need to move hard and fast to keep Iran from crossing the red line, after which Israel won’t have an effective military option.

“The results of a classified Defense Intelligence Agency report indicate that ‘North Korea now has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles,’” reports the Christian Science Monitor. “That was the bombshell out of a House Armed Services Committee hearing Thursday. It came when Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) of Colorado began quoting from what he said was an unclassified version of the DIA report, which has not yet been made public.”

“A new assessment by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with ‘moderate confidence,’ that North Korea has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile,” reports the New York Times. “The assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has been distributed to senior administration officials and members of Congress, cautions that the weapon’s ‘reliability will be low,’ apparently a reference to the North’s difficulty in developing accurate missiles or, perhaps, to the huge technical challenges of designing a warhead that can survive the rigors of flight and detonate on a specific target. The assessment’s existence was disclosed Thursday by Representative Doug Lamborn, Republican of Colorado, three hours into a budget hearing of the House Armed Services Committee with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey. General Dempsey declined to comment on the assessment because of classification issues. But late Thursday, the director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., released a statement saying that the assessment did not represent a consensus of the nation’s intelligence community and that ‘North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile.’”

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“Damascus Countdown” on NYT bestseller list for fifth week

In Uncategorized on April 12, 2013 at 12:41 pm

NYT_home_bannerWhen you write a novel, you just hope that your parents can find it at a bookstore within 100 miles of their house, not that it will become a national best-seller.

So thanks so much to all who are continuing to purchase and read the new novel, and those who are blogging about it, Tweeting about it, endorsing it, and reviewing it on Facebook, Amazon, BN, and in other places.

Thanks to all those who have interviewed me about the book and its parallels to what’s really happening in Iran, Syria, Israel and the broader Middle East. Thanks to all the brick & mortar bookstores, on-line and e-book retailers, and audio book retailers who have backed the novel so enthusiastically.

We just found out that Damascus Countdown will remain on the New York Times hardcover fiction best-seller list for the fifth straight week. It debuted at #7. Currently it will be on what’s known as the “extended list” at #29.

Lynn and I are very grateful for the enthusiastic response to this novel. God bless you.

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Analysis: What is the world learning from how U.S. is handling N. Korean nuclear crisis?

In Uncategorized on April 11, 2013 at 5:14 pm

NK-flag“North Korea has positioned two mobile missile launchers on the country’s east coast, [say] senior Pentagon officials — movement that comes as Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned North Korea is ‘skating very close to a dangerous line,’” reports Fox News. “The senior Pentagon official told Fox News that a test of the Musudan missiles could occur ‘at any time.’”

In light of this, I was interviewed on the Fox News Channel on the latest developments in the North Korean nuclear crisis and how the crisis is linked to the rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Before the show, I was asked to email the producer a summary of my analysis. Here’s what I sent:

  • In 2008, I published a thriller called, Dead Heat. The premise: a lunatic dictator running North Korea launches a preemptive nuclear strike at four American cities (New York, Washington, Los Angeles and Seattle). Now the actual lunatic leader of North Korea really is threatening a preemptive nuclear strike on the U.S. 
  • A very dangerous moment – two untested leaders facing off against each other on the Korean Peninsula.
  • Kim Jung Un, the dictator in Pyongyang, has only been on the job about 18 months. Is he really in control, or are others making military decisions? Could he/they miscalculate?
  • Park Geun-hye is the newly elected President of South Korea. First woman elected in the country’s history. Only been on the job two months. Daughter of the authoritarian leader of South Korea from the 1960s. Campaigned on making peace with the North. Does she know what she’s doing? Does she have what it takes in a crisis like this?
  • Then there is President Obama who has not faced a crisis this serious – akin in some ways to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
  • The President is right to be sending military assets to the Korean Peninsula, including B-52s, Stealth fighters, warships, missile defense systems, and so forth – presumably sending a message that we are ready for war. But is he?
  • The President made a serious mistake to cancel our test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile – we need to pursue a police of peace through strength, yet canceling a test like that is a sign of weakness, not strength.
  • The rest of the world is watching — what are they learning about how President Obama handles crises?
  • What is Iran learning? — They are working hand-in-glove with North Korea on nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles. They may actually be using Pyongyang as a research & development lab to perfect miniaturized nuclear warheads that Iran could use against Israel.
  • What is Israel learning? — That the U.S. isn’t really serious about stopping a rogue power from getting The Bomb.
  • The crisis in North Korea makes it more likely Netanyahu will launch a preemptive military strike against Iran, possibly this year.

Previous columns I’ve written on the North Korean threat and linkage with Iran:

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What happens when leaders miscalculate? Webcast of my remarks at The Heritage Foundation on using fiction to imagine worst-case scenarios.

In Uncategorized on April 9, 2013 at 9:10 pm
Speaking on "Damascus Countdown" at The Heritage Foundation on April 9, 2013.

Speaking on “Damascus Countdown” at The Heritage Foundation on April 9, 2013.

At noon today, I was honored to address The Heritage Foundation’s weekly “Blogger Briefing”, along with Senator Jim DeMint, the new president of Heritage. In addition to the bloggers in attendance, the event was webcast live to bloggers throughout the U.S. and around the world.

I told the group that if I could sum up my remarks in one word, it would be this: “Miscalculation.”

The world is a dangerous place when American presidents miscalculate. I noted that when I arrived in Washington at began working at Heritage in 1990 (my first real job after graduating from Syracuse University), Saddam Hussein was massing military forces on the border of Kuwait and threatening to invade. I was struck at the time by how many Middle East “experts” said Saddam would never invade. They said he was just “saber-rattling” and driving up the price of oil for his own ends. But to the lay person, it certainly looked like Saddam was really going to invade Kuwait, and on August 2, 1990, he did just that. Officials throughout Washington were stunned. They didn’t believe what Saddam had been saying for months. They didn’t understand the nature and threat of the evil Saddam presented, and thus they were blindsided by it.

This is one of the reasons I write fiction: to imagine worst-case scenarios, and to help other people — including political, military, intelligence, business and religious leaders — to imagine how quickly the world can spin out of control when leaders misunderstand evil and miscalculate.

At the invitation of Rob Bluey, Heritage’s director of digital media, I spoke for about ten minutes on my background, why I began writing novels, and how I seek to use fiction to imagine these worst-case scenarios. I gave a quick background on three of my novels as examples – The Last Jihad (about radical Muslims hijacking a plane and flying a kamikaze attack into an American city, written before September 11th, 2001); Dead Heat (about a preemptive nuclear strike by North Korea on four American cities and on South Korea, published in 2008); and Damascus Countdown, now in its fourth week on the New York Times best-seller list.

Then, for the next thirty minutes or so, I took questions from the bloggers. It was a very interesting conversation about geopolitics, global economics, and the art of writing fiction. One blogger asked me about my faith and how Bible prophecy factors into world events and my books. I noted that Bible prophecy is not a topic that often comes up at Washington’s premier “think tank,” but I was happy to address it. [Note: unfortunately, the video doesn't capture all of the Q&A portion.]

>> Here is the link to the webcast of the event — Sen. DeMint leads off, and my remarks begin around 17:30 into the program.

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“Iron Lady” Thatcher was first British Prime Minister to visit Israel. A tremendous leader who helped bring down the Evil Empire.

In Uncategorized on April 8, 2013 at 10:19 pm

The Iron Lady meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu.

UPDATED: A great lady will be missed.

Margaret Thatcher, the middle class daughter of a grocer, rose through the male-dominated political world in the U.K. to become the first — and only woman — Prime Minister in the history of Great Britain. By the force of her will and the conviction of her deeply-held principles about the virtue of freedom and liberty, Thatcher emerged as one of the most important and influential world leaders of the 20th century.

Like Churchill, Thatcher understood the nature and threat of evil and bravely led the British people during times of great peril. The U.S.-British alliance was at its peak strength and impact when Reagan and Thatcher led the Free World to bring down the Evil Empire of the Soviet Union.

Thatcher was the first serving British premier to visit Israel. This was no insignificant decision given that the fact that the British empire controlled Palestine during the “Mandate” period and the British Foreign Office was deeply committed to the Arab side and quite hostile to the Jews who wanted to return to and reestablish their Biblical homeland after the Holocaust.

“Margaret Thatcher who died of a stroke at 87 on Monday, was the first serving British prime minister ever to visit Israel,” reported the Israeli daily, Haaretz, today. “During her landmark visit in 1986, she was asked why Queen Elizabeth has never found the time to tour the Holy Land, to which she answered, ‘but I’m here.’ Of course, when one reviews the ‘firsts’ and other achievements by Thatcher over her long career, the fact that she was the first British prime minister to stare down the Arabists of the Foreign Office and visit Jerusalem is way down on the list.”

Her list of accomplishments is long and sweeping and while she made many allies and fans — winning three terms as PM — she also had many critics and detractors.

My wife, Lynn, and I had the honor of attending a black tie dinner for Lady Thatcher that was organized by The Heritage Foundation in September 1991, when I worked for Heritage. We had long been admirers of the “Iron Lady” but this was the first time we had every seen her and heard her speak in person. We were deeply impressed by her passion for setting people free from the tyranny of oppressive, suffocating government taxation and regulation. [To read her speech, please click here.]

A few years later, when I was working as a senior advisor for Steve Forbes, I had the opportunity to learn even more about the woman who saved Great Britain from socialism, at least for a season. Steve was close to Thatcher. They spoke frequently on key policy issues. Their families vacationed together. Thatcher even appeared with Steve in Iowa at a political fund-raiser. She didn’t exactly endorse Steve’s campaign for the presidency, but she came as close as she felt comfortable as a retired foreign leader. They were, after all, kindred spirits on the virtues of cutting taxes and encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation.

“Thatcher knew the deadweight on the economy of excessive taxation,” Steve noted in a column about her today. “She cut the top income tax rate from 98% to 40%. She cut the corporate income tax rate from 52% to 35%.”

“Along with Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher was a giant of our era and, indeed, of history,” Steve wrote. “These three leaders brought about the fall of Soviet communism and the resurgence of political and economic liberty around the world.  Like Reagan, Thatcher was one of those rare individuals who was both a movement leader and an effective political leader.  It is one thing to have firm ideas, quite another to have the skills to bring them into being and for them to endure after you leave office.  The current economic crisis has put Margaret Thatcher’s ideas and ideals under siege even though this disaster resulted from ignoring her and Reagan’s fundamental free market principles.”

WHAT THE WORLD IS SAYING:

Senior Israeli official: Iran must halt enrichment within “a few weeks.” Says deadline needed for military action on Iran.

In Uncategorized on April 7, 2013 at 12:00 pm
Strategic Affairs, Intelligence and International Relations Minister Yuval Steinitz. (Photo credit: Lior Mizrahi)

Strategic Affairs, Intelligence and International Relations Minister Yuval Steinitz. (Photo credit: Lior Mizrahi)

>> Israel stops to remember 6 million killed in Shoah (Times of Israel)

>> Netanyahu: “We won’t put our fate in the hands of others, even the best of our friends” (Jerusalem Post)

With the nuclear crisis intensifying in the Pacific, and talks with Iran again going nowhere, senior Israeli officials are increasingly concerned the world powers are not committed to taking decisive action to neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat before it’s too late. Now a senior Israeli Cabinet official is saying publicly and on the record that a final deadline for Iran should be measured in weeks, not months. Could such a warning mean that Prime Minister Netanyahu and his inner circle are nearing a decision on military action?

“Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz called on world powers on Sunday to set a deadline for military action of weeks to persuade Iran to halt its nuclear enrichment program after talks ended without progress at the weekend,” Reuters reports. “World powers and Iran failed again to end a deadlock in the decade-old dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program during the meeting in Kazakhstan, prolonging a standoff that could yet spiral into a new Middle East war.”

“Sanctions are not enough and the talks are not enough,” Steinitz said. “The time has come to place before the Iranians a military threat or a form of red line, an unequivocal red line by the entire world, by the United States and the West…in order to get results.”

“Steinitz, a close confidant of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, told Army Radio action should be taken within ‘a few weeks, a month’ if Iran did not stop enriching uranium, although he did not elaborate,” Reuters noted.

Developing…..

>> To learn more about Damascus Countdown — a New York Times bestselling political thriller about an Israeli first strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the retaliation by Iran and Syria — please click here.

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